Predicting Recurrent Instability of the Shoulder (PRIS): A valid prediction tool of patients who will not have repeat shoulder instability after first-Time traumatic anterior dislocation

Journal article


Olds, M., Ellis, R. and Kersten, P. 2020. Predicting Recurrent Instability of the Shoulder (PRIS): A valid prediction tool of patients who will not have repeat shoulder instability after first-Time traumatic anterior dislocation. Journal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy. 50 (8), pp. 431-469. https://doi.org/10.2519/jospt.2020.9284
AuthorsOlds, M., Ellis, R. and Kersten, P.
Abstract

Objective
To assess the sensitivity, specificity, and validity of the Predicting Recurrent Instability of the Shoulder (PRIS) tool in people with a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation.

Design
Prospective cohort study.

Methods
People with first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (n = 85), aged 16 to 40 years, were recruited within 12 weeks of their shoulder dislocation and followed prospectively for 1 year post injury. We calculated the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of the PRIS tool.

Results
Of the 75 participants available for 1-year follow-up, 57 (76%) did not have recurrent shoulder instability. With the PRIS tool cut point set at 0.895, the tool's sensitivity was 39% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.3%, 64.3%) and its specificity was 95% (95% CI: 85.4%, 98.9%). The area under the curve was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.84; P = .01). The PRIS tool correctly identified 54 of the 57 (95%) who did not have recurrent instability (accuracy, 81%; 95% CI: 70.7%, 89.4%). Negative and positive predictive values were 83% (95% CI: 77.2%, 87.7%) and 70% (95% CI: 40.2%, 89.0%), respectively.

Conclusion
The PRIS tool can predict those who will not have further shoulder instability in the year following first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. The PRIS tool cannot accurately predict those who will have recurrent shoulder instability. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2020;50(8):431–437. doi:10.2519/jospt.2020.9284

KeywordsRecurrent shoulder instability; Prognostic; Validation
Year2020
JournalJournal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy
Journal citation50 (8), pp. 431-469
PublisherMovement Science Media
ISSN1938-1344
0190-6011
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.2519/jospt.2020.9284
Official URLhttps://www.jospt.org/doi/10.2519/jospt.2020.9284
Publication dates
Print20 Jul 2020
Publication process dates
Deposited14 Apr 2022
Output statusPublished
Permalink -

https://repository.canterbury.ac.uk/item/90y19/predicting-recurrent-instability-of-the-shoulder-pris-a-valid-prediction-tool-of-patients-who-will-not-have-repeat-shoulder-instability-after-first-time-traumatic-anterior-dislocation

  • 8
    total views
  • 0
    total downloads
  • 6
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Collegial surface acting emotional labour, burnout, and intention to leave in novice and pre-retirement nurses in the United Kingdom: a cross sectional study.
Theodosius, C., Koulougliotti, C., Kersten, P., Rosten, C., Clarke, A. and Warren, Z. 2021. Collegial surface acting emotional labour, burnout, and intention to leave in novice and pre-retirement nurses in the United Kingdom: a cross sectional study. Nursing Open. 8 (1), pp. 463-472. https://doi.org/10.1002/nop2.649
Design considerations for a Multiple Sclerosis Fatigue mobile app MS Energize: A pragmatic iterative approach using usability testing and resonance checks.
Van Kessel, K., Babbage, D., Kersten, P., Drown, J., Sezier, A., Thomas, P. and Thomas, S. 2021. Design considerations for a Multiple Sclerosis Fatigue mobile app MS Energize: A pragmatic iterative approach using usability testing and resonance checks. Internet Interventions. 24, p. 100371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.invent.2021.100371
The immediate and subsequent impact of a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation, results from a national cohort study
Olds, M., Ellis, R., Parmar, P. and Kersten, P. 2020. The immediate and subsequent impact of a first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation, results from a national cohort study. Shoulder and Elbow. 13 (2), pp. 223-232. https://doi.org/10.1177/1758573220921484
Provision of first contact physiotherapy in primary care across the UK: A survey of the service
Halls, S., Thomas. R., Stott, H., Cupples, M. E., Kersten, P., Cramp, F., Foster, D. and Walsh, N. 2020. Provision of first contact physiotherapy in primary care across the UK: A survey of the service. Physiotherapy. 108, pp. 2-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physio.2020.04.005
Developing clinical expertise in musculoskeletal physiotherapy; Using observed practice to create a valued practice-based collaborative learning cycle
Carr, M., Morris, J. and Kersten, P. 2020. Developing clinical expertise in musculoskeletal physiotherapy; Using observed practice to create a valued practice-based collaborative learning cycle. Musculoskeletal Science and Practice. 50, p. 102278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.msksp.2020.102278
Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation
Olds, M. K., Ellis, R., Parmar, P. and Kersten, P. 2019. Who will redislocate his/her shoulder? Predicting recurrent instability following a first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation. BMJ Open Sport and Exercise Medicine. 5 (1). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2018-000447
Digitizing a face-to-face group fatigue management program: exploring the views of people with multiple sclerosis and health care professionals via consultation groups and interviews
Thomas, S., Pulman, A., Thomas, P., Collard, S., Jiang, N., Dogan, H., Davies Smith, A., Hourihan, S., Roberts, F., Kersten, P., Pretty, K., Miller, J. K., Stanley, K. and Gay, M. 2019. Digitizing a face-to-face group fatigue management program: exploring the views of people with multiple sclerosis and health care professionals via consultation groups and interviews. JMIR Formative Research. 3 (2). https://doi.org/10.2196/10951
Incidence and outcomes of major trauma in New Zealand: findings from a feasibility study of New Zealand’s first national trauma registry
Czuba, K. J., Kersten, P., Anstiss, D., Kayes, N. M., Gabbe. B. J., Civil, I., Kool, B., Terry, G., Smith, G. A., Rohan, M. and Siegert, R. J. 2019. Incidence and outcomes of major trauma in New Zealand: findings from a feasibility study of New Zealand’s first national trauma registry. The New Zealand Medical Journal. 132 (1494), pp. 26-40.
Optimising the real-world impact of rehabilitation reviews: increasing the relevance and usability of systematic reviews in rehabilitation
Kayes, N., Martin, R. A., Bright, F. A. S., Kersten, P. and Pollock, A. 2019. Optimising the real-world impact of rehabilitation reviews: increasing the relevance and usability of systematic reviews in rehabilitation. European Journal of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine. 55 (3), pp. 331-341. https://doi.org/10.23736/S1973-9087.19.05793-9
MS Energize: Field trial of an app for self-management of fatigue for people with multiple sclerosis
Babbage, D., Van Kessel, K., Drown, J., Thomas, S., Sezier, A., Thomas, P. and Kersten, P. 2019. MS Energize: Field trial of an app for self-management of fatigue for people with multiple sclerosis. Internet Interventions. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.invent.2019.100291
The Nijmegen Questionnaire: a valid measure for hyperventilation
Li Ogilvie, V., Kayes, N. and Kersten, P. 2019. The Nijmegen Questionnaire: a valid measure for hyperventilation. New Zealand Journal of Physiotherapy. 47 (3), pp. 160-171. https://doi.org/10.15619/NZJP/47.3.04
Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: internal validity and reliability for New Zealand pre-schoolers
Kersten, P., Vandal, A. C., Elder, H. and McPherson, K. M. 2018. Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: internal validity and reliability for New Zealand pre-schoolers. BMJ Open. 8 (4). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021551
Development of a toolkit to enhance care processes for people with a long-term neurological condition: a qualitative descriptive study
Sezier, A., Mudge, S., Kayes, N., Kersten, P., Payne, D., Harwood, M., Potter, E., Smith, G. and McPherson, K. M. 2018. Development of a toolkit to enhance care processes for people with a long-term neurological condition: a qualitative descriptive study. BMJ Open. 8 (6). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2018-022038
Making sense of recovery after traumatic brain injury through a peer mentoring intervention: a qualitative exploration
Kersten, P., Cummins, C., Kayes, N., Babbage, D., Elder, H., Foster, A., Weatherall, M., Siegert, R. J., Smith, G. and McPherson, K. 2018. Making sense of recovery after traumatic brain injury through a peer mentoring intervention: a qualitative exploration. BMJ Open. 8 (10). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020672
Mobile technology use by people experiencing multiple sclerosis fatigue: survey methodology
Van Kessel, K., Babbage, D. R., Reay, N., Miner-Williams, W. M. and Kersten, P. 2017. Mobile technology use by people experiencing multiple sclerosis fatigue: survey methodology. JMIR mHealth and uHealth. 5 (2). https://doi.org/10.2196/mhealth.6192
Te Waka Kuaka, Rasch analysis of a cultural assessment tool in traumatic brain injury in Māori
Elder, H., Czuba, K., Kersten, P., Caracuel, A. and McPherson, K. 2017. Te Waka Kuaka, Rasch analysis of a cultural assessment tool in traumatic brain injury in Māori. F1000Research. 6 (1034). https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.11500.1
Cross-cultural acceptability and utility of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: views of families
Kersten, P., Dudley, M., Nayar, S., Elder, H., Robertson, H., Tauroa, R. and McPherson, K. M. 2016. Cross-cultural acceptability and utility of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire: views of families. BMC Psychiatry. 16 (347). https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1186/s12888-016-1063-7
Ordinal-to-interval scale conversion tables and national items for the New Zealand version of the WHOQOL-BREF
Krägeloh, C. U., Billington, D. R., Hsien-Chuan Hsu, P., Feng, X. J., Medvedev, O. N., Kersten, P., Landon, J. and Siegert, R. J. 2016. Ordinal-to-interval scale conversion tables and national items for the New Zealand version of the WHOQOL-BREF. PLoS ONE. 11 (11). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0166065