Predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirth of the competing risks model for small‐for‐gestational‐age fetuses

Journal article

Nicolaides, Kypros H., Papastefanou, I., Syngelaki, Argyro, Ashoor, Ghalia and Akolekar, Ranjit 2022. Predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirth of the competing risks model for small‐for‐gestational‐age fetuses. BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology. 129 (9), pp. 1530-1537. https://doi.org/10.1111/1471-0528.17066
AuthorsNicolaides, Kypros H., Papastefanou, I., Syngelaki, Argyro, Ashoor, Ghalia and Akolekar, Ranjit
Abstract

Objectives:

To examine the predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths of the competing risks model for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses based on fetusa combination of maternal risk factors, estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI); and second, to compare the performance of this model with that of a stillbirth-specific model using the same biomarkers and with the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (RCOG) guideline for the investigation and management of the SGA fetus.


Design:


Prospective observational study.


Setting:


Two UK maternity hospitals.

Population:

A total of 131 514 women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks of gestation.

Methods:

The predictive performance for stillbirth achieved by three models was compared.

Main outcome measure:

Placental dysfunction related stillbirth.

Results:

At 10% false-positive rate, the competing risks model predicted 59%, 66% and 71% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths, at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, which were similar to the respective figures of 62%, 70% and 73% for the stillbirth-specific model. At a screen positive rate of 21.8%, as defined by the RCOG guideline, the competing risks model predicted 71%, 76% and 79% of placental dysfunction related stillbirths at any gestation, at <37 weeks and at <32 weeks, respectively, and the respective figures for the RCOG guideline were 40%, 44% and 42%.

Conclusion:

The predictive performance for placental dysfunction related stillbirths by the competing risks model for SGA was similar to that of the stillbirth-specific model and superior to that of the RCOG guideline.

KeywordsObstetrics and Gynecology
Year2022
JournalBJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology
Journal citation129 (9), pp. 1530-1537
PublisherWiley
ISSN1470-0328
1471-0528
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1111/1471-0528.17066
Official URLhttps://obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1471-0528.17066
FunderFetal Medicine Foundation
Publication dates
Online06 Jan 2022
Publication process dates
Deposited12 Jan 2022
Output statusPublished
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Ciobanou, A., Jabak, S., De Castro, H., Frei, L., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Biomarkers of impaired placentation at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (1), pp. 79-86. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20346
Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis
Salomon, L. J., Sotiriadis, A., Wulff, C. B., Odibo, A. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (4), pp. 442-451. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20353
Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonate by routine third-trimester ultrasound
Khan, N., Ciobanu, A., Karampitsakos, T., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonate by routine third-trimester ultrasound. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (2), pp. 326-333. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20377
Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation
Akolekar, R., Panaitescu, A. M., Ciobanu, A., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54, pp. 484-491. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20391
Prevention of stillbirths: impact of a two-stage screening for vasa previa
Zhang, W., Geris, S., Beta, J., Ramadan, G., Nicolaides, K. H. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Prevention of stillbirths: impact of a two-stage screening for vasa previa. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 55 (5), pp. 605-612. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21953
Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in the prediction of coarctation of the aorta
Vigneswaran, T. V., Zidere, V., Chivers, S., Charakida, M., Akolekar, R. and Simpson, J. M. 2019. Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in the prediction of coarctation of the aorta. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21957
Diagnosis of major heart defects by routine first-trimester ultrasound examination: association with high nuchal translucency, tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in the ductus venosus
Minnella, G. P., Crupano, F. M., Syngelaki, A., Zidere, V., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Diagnosis of major heart defects by routine first-trimester ultrasound examination: association with high nuchal translucency, tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in the ductus venosus. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 55 (5), pp. 637-644. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21956
Screening for pre-eclampsia using sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-off of 38 at 30-37 weeks' gestation
Dragan, I., Georgiou, T., Prodan, N., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2017. Screening for pre-eclampsia using sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-off of 38 at 30-37 weeks' gestation. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 49 (1), pp. 73-77. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17301
Uterine artery pulsatility index at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Uterine artery pulsatility index at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (3), pp. 308-315. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.14898
Biophysical and biochemical markers at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Biophysical and biochemical markers at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (2), pp. 194-202. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.14928
Screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood: consequences of a failed result
Revello, R., Sarno, L., Ispas, A., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood: consequences of a failed result. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (6), pp. 698-704. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15851
Metformin versus placebo in obese pregnant women without diabetes mellitus
Syngelaki, A., Nicolaides, K. H., Balani, J., Hyer, S., Akolekar, R., Kotecha, R., Pastides, A. and Shehata, H. 2016. Metformin versus placebo in obese pregnant women without diabetes mellitus. New England Journal of Medicine. 374, pp. 434-43. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1509819
Prospective first-trimester screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in twin pregnancy
Sarno, L., Revello, R., Hanson, E., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prospective first-trimester screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in twin pregnancy. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (6), pp. 705-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15913
Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks
Mastrodima, S., Akolekar, R., Yerlikaya, G., Tzelepis, T. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 613-617. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17289
Prediction of stillbirth from maternal demographic and pregnancy characteristics
Yerlikaya, G., Akolekar, R., McPherson, K., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from maternal demographic and pregnancy characteristics. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 607-612. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17290
Endoscopic placental laser coagulation in dichorionic and monochorionic triplet pregnancies
Peeva, G., Chaveeva, P., Gil Guevara, E., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Endoscopic placental laser coagulation in dichorionic and monochorionic triplet pregnancies. Fetal Diagnosis and Therapy. 40 (3), pp. 174-180. https://doi.org/10.1159/000443792
Prediction of stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal biometry and uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks
Akolekar, R., Tokunaka, M., Ortega, N., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal biometry and uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 624-630. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17295
Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks
Akolekar, R., Machuca, M., Mendes, M., Paschos, V. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 618-623. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17288
Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 19-24 weeks
Aupont J. E., Akolekar, R., Illian, A., Neonakis, S. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 19-24 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 631-635. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17229
Biophysical and biochemical markers at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2015. Biophysical and biochemical markers at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (2), pp. 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15663