Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonate by routine third-trimester ultrasound

Journal article


Khan, N., Ciobanu, A., Karampitsakos, T., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonate by routine third-trimester ultrasound. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (2), pp. 326-333. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20377
AuthorsKhan, N., Ciobanu, A., Karampitsakos, T., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H.
Abstract

Objectives: First, to evaluate and compare the performance of routine ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) at 31+0 - 33+6 and 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation in the prediction of large for gestational age (LGA) neonates born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation. Second, to assess the additive value of fetal growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks’ gestation on the performance of EFW at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation for prediction of LGA neonates. Third, to define the predictive performance for LGA neonates of different EFW cut-offs at routine ultrasound examination at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation. Fourth, to propose a two-stage strategy for identifying pregnancies with LGA fetuses that may benefit from iatrogenic delivery during the 38th gestational week.

Methods: First, data from 21,989 singleton pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 31+0 - 33+6 weeks’ gestation and 45,847 that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks were used to compare the predictive performance of EFW and AC for LGA neonates with birthweight >90th and >97th percentiles born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation. Second, data from 14,497 singleton pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation and had a previous scan at 30+0 – 34+6 weeks were used to determine, through multivariable logistic regression analysis, whether addition of growth velocity, defined by a difference in EFW and AC Z-scores between the early and late third trimester scans divided by the time interval between them, improved the performance of EFW at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks in the prediction of delivery of LGA neonates born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation. Third, in the database of the 45,847 pregnancies that had undergone routine ultrasound examination at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation the screen positive and detection rate of LGA neonates born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation and at ≤10 days from the initial scan were calculated for different EFW percentile cut-offs between the 50th and 90th percentile.

Results: First, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of screening for LGA neonates were significantly higher with EFW Z-score than AC Z-score and at 35+0 - 36+6 than at 31+0 - 33+6 weeks’ gestation (p<0.001). Second, the performance of screening for LGA neonates achieved by EFW Z-score at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks was not significantly improved by addition of EFW or AC growth velocity. Third, in screening by EFW >90th percentile at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation the predictive performance for LGA neonates born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation was modest (65% and 46% for neonates with birthweight >97th and >90th percentiles, respectively, at screen positive rate of 10%), but the performance was better for prediction of LGA neonates born at ≤10 days from the scan (84% and 71% for neonates with birthweight >97th and >90th percentiles, respectively, at screen positive rate of 11%). Fourth, screening by EFW >70th percentile at 35+0 - 36+6 weeks’ gestation predicted 91% and 82% of LGA neonates with birthweight >97th and >90th percentiles born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation, at screen positive rate of 32%, and the respective values of screening by EFW >85th percentile for prediction of LGA neonates born at ≤10 days from the scan were 88%, 81% and 15%. On the basis of these results it was proposed that routine fetal biometry at 36 weeks’ gestation is a screening rather than diagnostic test for fetal macrosomia and that EFW >70th percentile should be used to identify pregnancies in need for another scan at 38 weeks and in the latter those with EFW >85th percentile should be considered for iatrogenic delivery during the 38th week.

Conclusions: First, the predictive performance for LGA neonates by routine ultrasonographic examination during the third trimester is higher if the scan is carried out at 36 than at 32 weeks, the method of screening is EFW than fetal AC, the outcome measure is birthweight >97th than >90th percentile and if delivery occurs within 10 days than at any stage after assessment. Second, prediction of LGA neonates by EFW >90th percentile is modest and the study presents a two-stage strategy for maximizing the prenatal prediction of LGA neonates.

KeywordsThird trimester screening; Large for gestational age; Estimated fetal weight; Fetal biometry; Symphysial-fundal height; Pyramid of pregnancy care
Year2019
JournalUltrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology
Journal citation54 (2), pp. 326-333
PublisherWiley
ISSN0960-7692
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20377
Official URLhttps://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20377
FunderFetal Medicine Foundation
Publication dates
Online23 Jul 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted17 Jun 2019
Deposited18 May 2020
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusPublished
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Akolekar, R., Ciobanu, A., Zingler, E., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K.H. 2019. Routine assessment of cerebroplacental ratio at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology. 221 (1), pp. 65.e1-65.e18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajog.2019.03.002
Routine ultrasound at 32 vs 36 weeks' gestation: prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates
Ciobanu, A., Khan, N., Syngelaki, A., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Routine ultrasound at 32 vs 36 weeks' gestation: prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 53 (6), pp. 761-768. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20258
Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates at 35-37 weeks' gestation: contribution of maternal factors and growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks
Ciobanu, A., Anthoulakis, C., Syngelaki, A., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K.H. 2019. Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates at 35-37 weeks' gestation: contribution of maternal factors and growth velocity between 32 and 36 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 53 (5), pp. 630-637. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20267
Maternal and neonatal complications of fetal macrosomia: cohort study
Beta, J., Khan, N., Fiolna, M., Khalil, A., Ramadan, G. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Maternal and neonatal complications of fetal macrosomia: cohort study. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (3), pp. 319-325. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20279
Procedure-related risk of miscarriage following chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis
Beta, J., Zhang, W., Geris, S., Kostiv, V. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Procedure-related risk of miscarriage following chorionic villus sampling and amniocentesis. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (4), pp. 452-457. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20293
Biomarkers of impaired placentation at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Ciobanou, A., Jabak, S., De Castro, H., Frei, L., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Biomarkers of impaired placentation at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (1), pp. 79-86. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20346
Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis
Salomon, L. J., Sotiriadis, A., Wulff, C. B., Odibo, A. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Risk of miscarriage following amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling: systematic review of literature and updated meta-analysis. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54 (4), pp. 442-451. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20353
Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation
Akolekar, R., Panaitescu, A. M., Ciobanu, A., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 54, pp. 484-491. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.20391
Prevention of stillbirths: impact of a two-stage screening for vasa previa
Zhang, W., Geris, S., Beta, J., Ramadan, G., Nicolaides, K. H. and Akolekar, R. 2019. Prevention of stillbirths: impact of a two-stage screening for vasa previa. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 55 (5), pp. 605-612. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21953
Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in the prediction of coarctation of the aorta
Vigneswaran, T. V., Zidere, V., Chivers, S., Charakida, M., Akolekar, R. and Simpson, J. M. 2019. Impact of prospective measurement of outflow tracts in the prediction of coarctation of the aorta. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21957
Diagnosis of major heart defects by routine first-trimester ultrasound examination: association with high nuchal translucency, tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in the ductus venosus
Minnella, G. P., Crupano, F. M., Syngelaki, A., Zidere, V., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2019. Diagnosis of major heart defects by routine first-trimester ultrasound examination: association with high nuchal translucency, tricuspid regurgitation and abnormal flow in the ductus venosus. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 55 (5), pp. 637-644. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.21956
Screening for pre-eclampsia using sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-off of 38 at 30-37 weeks' gestation
Dragan, I., Georgiou, T., Prodan, N., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2017. Screening for pre-eclampsia using sFlt-1/PlGF ratio cut-off of 38 at 30-37 weeks' gestation. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 49 (1), pp. 73-77. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17301
Uterine artery pulsatility index at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Uterine artery pulsatility index at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (3), pp. 308-315. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.14898
Biophysical and biochemical markers at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Biophysical and biochemical markers at 30-34 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (2), pp. 194-202. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.14928
Screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood: consequences of a failed result
Revello, R., Sarno, L., Ispas, A., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood: consequences of a failed result. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (6), pp. 698-704. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15851
Metformin versus placebo in obese pregnant women without diabetes mellitus
Syngelaki, A., Nicolaides, K. H., Balani, J., Hyer, S., Akolekar, R., Kotecha, R., Pastides, A. and Shehata, H. 2016. Metformin versus placebo in obese pregnant women without diabetes mellitus. New England Journal of Medicine. 374, pp. 434-43. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1509819
Prospective first-trimester screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in twin pregnancy
Sarno, L., Revello, R., Hanson, E., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prospective first-trimester screening for trisomies by cell-free DNA testing of maternal blood in twin pregnancy. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (6), pp. 705-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15913
Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks
Mastrodima, S., Akolekar, R., Yerlikaya, G., Tzelepis, T. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 613-617. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17289
Prediction of stillbirth from maternal demographic and pregnancy characteristics
Yerlikaya, G., Akolekar, R., McPherson, K., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from maternal demographic and pregnancy characteristics. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 607-612. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17290
Endoscopic placental laser coagulation in dichorionic and monochorionic triplet pregnancies
Peeva, G., Chaveeva, P., Gil Guevara, E., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Endoscopic placental laser coagulation in dichorionic and monochorionic triplet pregnancies. Fetal Diagnosis and Therapy. 40 (3), pp. 174-180. https://doi.org/10.1159/000443792
Prediction of stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal biometry and uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks
Akolekar, R., Tokunaka, M., Ortega, N., Syngelaki, A. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from maternal factors, fetal biometry and uterine artery Doppler at 19-24 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 624-630. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17295
Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks
Akolekar, R., Machuca, M., Mendes, M., Paschos, V. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 618-623. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17288
Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 19-24 weeks
Aupont J. E., Akolekar, R., Illian, A., Neonakis, S. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from placental growth factor at 19-24 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 631-635. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.17229
Biophysical and biochemical markers at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome
Valiño, N., Giunta, G., Gallo, D. M., Akolekar, R. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2015. Biophysical and biochemical markers at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 47 (2), pp. 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1002/uog.15663