Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks
Mastrodima, S., Akolekar, R., Yerlikaya, G., Tzelepis, T. and Nicolaides, K. H. 2016. Prediction of stillbirth from biochemical and biophysical markers at 11-13 weeks. Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. 48 (5), pp. 613-617.
|Authors||Mastrodima, S., Akolekar, R., Yerlikaya, G., Tzelepis, T. and Nicolaides, K. H.|
Objectives: To develop a model for prediction of stillbirth based on a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history with first trimester biochemical and biophysical markers and evaluate the performance of screening of this model for all stillbirths and those due to impaired placentation and unexplained causes.
Methods: This was a prospective screening study of 76,897 singleton pregnancies including 76,629 live births and 268 (0.35%) antepartum stillbirths; 157 (59%) were secondary to impaired placentation and 111 (41%) were due to other or unexplained causes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine if there was a significant contribution to prediction of stillbirth from the maternal factor-derived a priori risk, fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV-PIV), uterine artery pulsatility index (UT-PI) and maternal serum free ß-human chorionic gonadotrophin ((ß-hCG) and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). The significant contributors were used to derive a model for first-trimester prediction of stillbirth.
Results: Significant contribution to prediction of stillbirth was provided by maternal factors, PAPP-A, UT-PI and DV-PIV. A model combining these variables predicted 40% of all stillbirths and 55% of those due to impaired placentation, at false positive rate of 10%; within the impaired placentation group the detection rate of stillbirth at <32 weeks’ gestation was higher than that of stillbirth at >37 weeks (64% vs 42%).
|Keywords||Stillbirth; First trimester screening; Pyramid of pregnancy care|
|Journal||Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology|
|Journal citation||48 (5), pp. 613-617|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI)||doi:10.1002/uog.17289|
|Funder||Fetal Medicine Foundation|
|Online||09 Nov 2016|
|Publication process dates|
|Accepted||09 Aug 2016|
|Deposited||07 May 2020|
|Accepted author manuscript|
Accepted author manuscript
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