Change amidst continuity? Assessing the 2018 regional elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Looking at regional elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is a complex task. It requires a simultaneous discussion of nationalization and congruence in Bosnian elections, the role of civic parties, the role of regional elections in overall party system fragmentation, and the impact of federalism and power-sharing on peace-building and state-building. For this paper, we use two primary analytical lenses. The first and most emphasized lens will be on developments in political competition within cantons and entities, and therefore largely within ethnic blocs. Due to limits imposed by power-sharing at the central state level, regional elections are where competition is most dynamic and responsive to voters. Of particular interest are challenges to SNSD’s (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats- Savez nezavisnih socijaldemokrata) predominant position in Republika Srpska in light of very visible popular protest against Milorad Dodik and his party, as well as the impact of ongoing fragmentation of civic parties in the Federation and canton elections. The second lens is the analysis of continuity and change in the linkage between canton and entity elections on the one hand and BiH-level elections on the other. This interaction is the driving force behind the distinctive features of the Bosnian party system, namely its high degree of congruence within regions and low congruence across regions, which results in a highly fragmented party system at the central state level. This paper includes a discussion of entity and cantonal elections in Bosnia in 2018, embedded in the discourse of party system change and continuity as well as congruence and fragmentation. However, we also link this discussion to BiH-level elections to demonstrate how peculiar the country is, but also how the elections at a regional and cantonal level help explain some of the problems of Bosnia as a whole.